CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe863263bd7f5f982195d15f28f43a4454c5092ebc1dff70e81e63eb4cf7b4f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FORZE Reloadof FORZE Reload, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked FORZE Reload | 79c | 3,805$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 21c | 3,436$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.9 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ARCRED | 22c | 1,721$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.25 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ARCRED | 49c | 585.05$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed ARCRED | 34c | 392.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed FORZE Reload | 76c | 258.21$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…a506backed ARCRED | 31c | 215.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked FORZE Reload | 73c | 204.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ARCRED | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked FORZE Reload | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked FORZE Reload | 72c | 195.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 449 | 57.5%258 W · 191 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…860cbacked FORZE Reload | 71c | 177.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed ARCRED | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xece6…e768backed ARCRED | 25c | 166.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed ARCRED | 27c | 162.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed ARCRED | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fa…140bbacked FORZE Reload | 73c | 146.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked ARCRED | 20c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked ARCRED | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…5659backed FORZE Reload | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked FORZE Reload | 80c | 101.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed ARCRED | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 165 | 27.9%46 W · 119 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…ed40backed FORZE Reload | 74c | 89.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed FORZE Reload | 69c | 86.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…9ccfbacked FORZE Reload | 74c | 82.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed FORZE Reload | 69c | 79.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 202 | 43.6%88 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…4761backed FORZE Reload | 80c | 75.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…b657backed ARCRED | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…1eccbacked FORZE Reload | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…4413backed ARCRED | 38c | 52.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78b…a688backed FORZE Reload | 73c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…b4d2backed FORZE Reload | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked FORZE Reload | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…2aeabacked FORZE Reload | 74c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…6220backed FORZE Reload | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…43edbacked ARCRED | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…80e9backed FORZE Reload | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…506fbacked FORZE Reload | 70c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed FORZE Reload | 79c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed FORZE Reload | 72c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed FORZE Reload | 58c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 1 WinnerFORZE Reload won
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 2 WinnerFORZE Reload won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.