Fifa International · resolved market
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305ee7f9029d38e4c80471dffc08c678fb3f7b3e952c3dfd692ab814c580fab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 20,031$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ae…e4babacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 9c | 3,009$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.36 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 8c | 1,120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…f64fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…68e5backed Yes | 10c | 580$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd904…e16bbacked Yes | 10c | 524.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…cd2bbacked Yes | 9c | 464.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 6c | 210.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…320ebacked Yes | 10c | 172.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…736dbacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…0e06backed Yes | 10c | 128.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…55fabacked Yes | 10c | 100.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…d54abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…f6d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8df…1d90backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…6897backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Curaçao to score first vs. Germany?this page
- Germany to score first vs. Curaçao?Yes won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.