Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 62°F or higher on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306752ab6e3e9ea183dae35f74537f22361506dce3c7575765c53b1e17a22512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eda…bbc4backed No | 2c | 1,292$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +676.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 71c | 730.51$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.19 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 534.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 347.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 21c | 197.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 195.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 24c | 171.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 28c | 166.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 50c | 163.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 20c | 154.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 13c | 149.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed Yes | 14c | 135.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…66fdbacked Yes | 14c | 116.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…79e0backed No | 44c | 108.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 97.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 94.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 16c | 94.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 91.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…ccebbacked No | 72c | 90.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…135bbacked No | 34c | 71.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…7880backed No | 67c | 58.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 77c | 46.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 79c | 37.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed No | 71c | 31.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed Yes | 37c | 30.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…cb81backed Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 62°F or higher on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.