Fifa International · resolved market
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306b98d35252384bcde3b5680de2ba7feef1680b6375e1a92952798c0ed80d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 7,448$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 3c | 4,377$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Yes | 3c | 1,473$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…14c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,360$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 4c | 953.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…7277backed Yes | 4c | 899.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…02b4backed Yes | 4c | 845.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…fba1backed Yes | 3c | 728.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 3c | 663.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 26.1%74 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 3c | 599.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…a4e3backed Yes | 5c | 493.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…67b4backed Yes | 3c | 461.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Yes | 3c | 347$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…191cbacked Yes | 4c | 269.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 22.3%31 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…f11ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 23.3%40 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…fc3fbacked Yes | 31c | 36.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06?this page
- Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw?No won
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.