CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: sleepers vs A Great Chaos - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cc176675731daaa0b0db8662c9640868647f0cf2f3cd9db53c7f524d0b9323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- sleepersof sleepers, A Great Chaos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75d…0717backed A Great Chaos | 45c | 599.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.18 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed sleepers | 72c | 462.25$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed A Great Chaos | 31c | 303.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked sleepers | 54c | 262.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked sleepers | 62c | 224.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked sleepers | 65c | 178.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked A Great Chaos | 37c | 116.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed sleepers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked A Great Chaos | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed A Great Chaos | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked A Great Chaos | 29c | 38.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed sleepers | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed A Great Chaos | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked A Great Chaos | 38c | 27.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked sleepers | 62c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed A Great Chaos | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed sleepers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed sleepers | 63c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: sleepers vs A Great Chaos - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: sleepers vs A Great Chaos (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #7 Playoffssleepers won
- Counter-Strike: sleepers vs A Great Chaos - Map 2 Winnersleepers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.