College Football · resolved market
San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f0ffc61f0760056aba069a0d2b014f115c32c8316965997748ca6eab24a5d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof San Diego State, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed San Diego State | 53c | 16,504$8,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,741.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Northern Illinois | 47c | 9,736$4,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.92 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 8,868$4,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed San Diego State | 55c | 1,781$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed San Diego State | 53c | 1,426$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.35 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 1,009$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.67 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Diego State | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Northern Illinois | 45c | 502.22$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Northern Illinois | 44c | 424.08$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Diego State | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed San Diego State | 55c | 360.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Northern Illinois | 45c | 356.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed San Diego State | 53c | 319.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Northern Illinois | 43c | 283$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Northern Illinois | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Northern Illinois | 47c | 187.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked San Diego State | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked San Diego State | 52c | 161.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Northern Illinois | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked San Diego State | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Northern Illinois | 45c | 90.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…9f71backed San Diego State | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed San Diego State | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Northern Illinois | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego State | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego State vs. Northern Illinoisthis page
- Spread: San Diego State (-2.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.