Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f89286890b15034d69ff4aa85fdebe9923c61a17a7756f9851b3296a5f6c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 2c | 2,091$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 65c | 1,029$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 74c | 540.8$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 540$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 510.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 474.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 13c | 372.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 29c | 294.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 294.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 7c | 269.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.59 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 260.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 255.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 215.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 34c | 191.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 17c | 172.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 144.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 108.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 78c | 106.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 33c | 77.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 22c | 68.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 37c | 68.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 38c | 65.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 34c | 58.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 56.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 24c | 51.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 58c | 50.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 49.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 80c | 37.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 34c | 29.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 76c | 25.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 78c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a07…69c5backed Yes | 59c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 79c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 75c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.