TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,779 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes76c283.04$214 inWon+$69.262378.3%18 W · 5 L+7.1wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+72.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf903…e028backed No11c199.34$23 inLost-$22.692470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3577…6effbacked Yes67c150.2$100 inWon+$50.23096.7%29 W · 1 L+13.3wins+0.44per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No22c98.78$22 inLost-$21.755731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x998b…db96backed No28c54$15 inLost-$15.12185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No28c50$14 inLost-$14.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c49$13 inLost-$13.2287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No23c46.58$11 inLost-$10.78326.3%2 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-80.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed No53c30$16 inLost-$15.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.