Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x313846e8b9c7396436cbcdc66d7df0648965e3863208b7cd3af8c5af3019331c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhengof Barrios, Zheng
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Zheng | 69c | 4,327$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.36 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Barrios | 31c | 3,034$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.95 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Barrios | 44c | 1,564$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.79 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Barrios | 3c | 1,047$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Barrios | 27c | 676.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.11 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Barrios | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Barrios | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Zheng | 46c | 453.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.23 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Zheng | 69c | 437.24$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Zheng | 54c | 398.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Zheng | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Zheng | 53c | 235.73$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Barrios | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Zheng | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Barrios | 17c | 206.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Barrios | 40c | 203$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Barrios | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…dfb9backed Zheng | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Barrios | 45c | 140.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…f8c6backed Barrios | 79c | 128.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Barrios | 22c | 105.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Zheng | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…81c3backed Barrios | 49c | 81.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Zheng | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Barrios | 33c | 70.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…cf9ebacked Zheng | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Zheng | 65c | 57.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Zheng | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…18a5backed Zheng | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Barrios | 31c | 36.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…aa18backed Zheng | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Zheng | 73c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…eb47backed Zheng | 73c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 79cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…647dbacked Zheng | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc993…ec87backed Zheng | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.