CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31589d69538f4cef66f72e5dacc02de49a6fabb823116c3acc79f2df367bad35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roosterof Rooster, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Arcade Esports | 33c | 1,016$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.9 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Arcade Esports | 45c | 698.9$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.76 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…e9b4backed Arcade Esports | 16c | 610.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Rooster | 74c | 562.58$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Rooster | 48c | 500.6$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed Rooster | 61c | 397.37$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Rooster | 60c | 257.09$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a123backed Rooster | 78c | 239.84$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rooster | 47c | 215.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.53 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Rooster | 61c | 204.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Arcade Esports | 24c | 201.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Arcade Esports | 33c | 174.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports | 17c | 133.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rooster | 42c | 120.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Rooster | 58c | 109.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Arcade Esports | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -13.9wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…e984backed Rooster | 64c | 104.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…66b2backed Rooster | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Arcade Esports | 36c | 96.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Arcade Esports | 32c | 89.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Arcade Esports | 27c | 85.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Arcade Esports | 42c | 78.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed Arcade Esports | 23c | 70.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ae39backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 69.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Rooster | 64c | 67.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports | 22c | 53.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed Rooster | 52c | 46.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1283…0fcdbacked Rooster | 74c | 41.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Rooster | 68c | 40.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…9c08backed Rooster | 51c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Rooster | 65c | 23.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…5b49backed Rooster | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…904ebacked Rooster | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Arcade Esports | 68c | 20.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Rooster | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Rooster | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf324…2c6bbacked Rooster | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 WinnerArcade Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.