Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31839c6619cba8d2b776309f317ed6e8c1214f949d763d78f926dd72bff69c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 2c | 806.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 313.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 38c | 310.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 67c | 209.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 12c | 164.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 119.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582e…6231backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…6b4bbacked Yes | 28c | 63.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 36c | 29.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 26?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 21?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 22?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 23?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 25?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.