Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs Halys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31bf50c692513cb74155b81ba39d83c70d0b1944036ddd3d560d0f4d713c2ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Halysof Fearnley, Halys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Halys | 55c | 138$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Halys | 55c | 136$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fearnley | 22c | 117.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Halys | 74c | 105.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Halys | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Halys | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Fearnley | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Fearnley | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Fearnley | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Halys | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Fearnley | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Fearnley | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Fearnley | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Fearnley | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Fearnley | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Fearnley | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Fearnley | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs Halysthis page
- Adelaide International: Jacob Fearnley vs Quentin HalysHalys won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)Halys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.