Tennis · resolved market
Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x034d1f75a806cb3aa00a47b3b1ef44822951e43b8794a56c62cc50649d75a8b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 53c | 181$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Adelaide International: Jacob Fearnley vs Quentin HalysHalys won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fearnley vs. Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs HalysHalys won
- Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Fearnley (+1.5)Halys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.