College Football · resolved market
Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ee3fbfa8e754054700325f5cbf2285956f58f800a2c46b65e4d1087d8bbfac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Under | 49c | 8,397$4,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,285.44 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,925$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.06 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 2,703$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.4 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Over | 54c | 944.24$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 781.66$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.28 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 593.74$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.81 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 76c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5this page
- Arizona vs. Arizona StateArizona won
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: 1H MoneylineArizona State won
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona (-1.5)Arizona won
- Spread: Arizona (-2.5)Arizona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.