College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1eb7c4db833c5f0ab6051037ac14889e669fcec94132e61e8830e1302da47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizonaof Arizona, Arizona State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Arizona | 47c | 3,662$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.1 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Arizona State | 47c | 3,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arizona | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Arizona State | 53c | 1,950$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.5 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State | 53c | 1,934$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.87 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona | 47c | 1,838$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arizona State | 51c | 1,635$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona | 58c | 1,130$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.69 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arizona | 48c | 485.5$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.46 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arizona State | 51c | 329$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Arizona | 49c | 216$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Arizona | 50c | 201.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Arizona | 73c | 146.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Arizona | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Arizona State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Arizona State | 26c | 96.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Arizona State | 51c | 92.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Arizona State | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arizona State | 49c | 45.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona (-2.5)this page
- Arizona vs. Arizona StateArizona won
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: 1H MoneylineArizona State won
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5Under won
- Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona (-1.5)Arizona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.