Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir reach $174 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ff3182ba0d4529a15330f83eb0e38728e6f08578941e9c264e0e0e834bc319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a4e…669dbacked No | 69c | 145.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…ce7fbacked No | 69c | 144.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…0fbfbacked No | 69c | 144.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533a…1676backed No | 69c | 143.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…d315backed No | 69c | 142.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…6f34backed No | 69c | 142.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1cb4backed No | 69c | 141.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…afeabacked No | 69c | 139.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…10c0backed No | 69c | 139.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e3…5cb5backed No | 69c | 139.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…fda5backed No | 69c | 139.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed No | 69c | 138.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…fea6backed No | 69c | 138.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…f8c7backed No | 69c | 138.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…0fc3backed No | 69c | 137.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…eeeabacked No | 69c | 136.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…8031backed No | 69c | 136.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…9113backed No | 69c | 135.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…ba63backed No | 69c | 135.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…6908backed No | 69c | 135.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed No | 69c | 135.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…8e5cbacked No | 69c | 134.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…ba2cbacked No | 69c | 134.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…7ca5backed No | 69c | 133.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed No | 69c | 133.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…6655backed No | 69c | 132.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…ed40backed No | 69c | 132.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…e9fbbacked No | 69c | 131.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…5c16backed No | 69c | 131.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…f86ebacked No | 69c | 130.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir reach $174 in April?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $114 in April?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $126 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $135 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $156 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $162 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.