Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir dip to $156 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd4537904216d7c25d48056f7aea782f331c7e9f7e2d2ed87b2f972253d5aca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 77c | 421.06$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 4c | 375.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…f4d7backed No | 21c | 300.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…a7f9backed No | 21c | 287.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…6a28backed No | 21c | 262.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…90a9backed No | 21c | 215.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…4eeabacked No | 21c | 214.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 75c | 105.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 50c | 59.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir dip to $156 in April?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $114 in April?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $126 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $135 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in April?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $162 in April?No won
- Will Palantir reach $174 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.