Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32043052b66239741d2f6765a84d32f02c5ff47b9ac648f144805043af080854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 12,425$6,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,088.16 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 52c | 11,000$5,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314.34 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 3,690$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.19 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 3,588$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.31 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,342$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.48 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 42c | 1,202$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 1,059$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.52 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 725.75$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Under | 56c | 505.36$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 427.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 49c | 269.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 50c | 202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Under | 59c | 176.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 52c | 151.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 191 | 45%86 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Under | 54c | 70.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 52c | 62.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 49.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 48c | 39.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 47c | 35.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 43c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 45c | 22.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 65c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.