South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d4ab3bd3997a305ae20a572bdf97c7dcabb1f001475fb23cd632c4697e3c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 4,739$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.22 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 3,999$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.66 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 42c | 467.33$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 35c | 299$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 276.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 268.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 58c | 214.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 58c | 205.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 42c | 102.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 76.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 46c | 76.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 44.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Under | 52c | 36.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +380.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…4079backed Over | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 53c | 27.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 62c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 105 | 64.8%68 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 65c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Racing Club (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.