NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers beat the Cowboys by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32e2ef73b60e8e24ee82bfbed68f29055e5fa07f5b5a70926b2b7adc73ff71fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed 49ers | 59c | 6,507$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,652.81 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Cowboys | 41c | 4,453$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.63 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Cowboys | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Cowboys | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed 49ers | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Cowboys | 49c | 356.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed 49ers | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed 49ers | 51c | 255.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…5677backed 49ers | 60c | 223.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed 49ers | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Cowboys | 40c | 117.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed 49ers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…a563backed 49ers | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers beat the Cowboys by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the Bills beat the Seahawks by 3 or more points?Bills won
- Will the Dolphins beat the Cardinals by 5 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Falcons beat the Buccaneers by 3 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Lions beat the Titans by 12 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Packers beat the Jaguars by 4 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Ravens beat the Browns by 8 or more points?Browns won
- Will the Texans beat the Colts by 5 or more points?Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.