NFL · resolved market
Will the Packers beat the Jaguars by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf498ca8bab6da8491f773422908d340a950c7ae3ca7d60638732f08e0d4659c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Packers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Jaguars | 45c | 11,984$5,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,532.03 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed Packers | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Packers | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Packers | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.8 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Packers | 55c | 818.18$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Packers | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c3…eb80backed Packers | 54c | 289.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…c199backed Packers | 54c | 238.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…45ebbacked Packers | 54c | 237.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Packers | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jaguars | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…5928backed Packers | 54c | 203.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Packers | 51c | 195$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…b2a6backed Packers | 54c | 187.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…b71dbacked Packers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc24…f4ffbacked Packers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Packers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…3187backed Packers | 54c | 164.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…cf95backed Packers | 54c | 155.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f64…7067backed Packers | 54c | 154.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…e498backed Packers | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…3a3ebacked Packers | 54c | 151.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…2965backed Packers | 54c | 149.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…a520backed Packers | 54c | 144.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0950…9a1abacked Packers | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4622…cf3bbacked Packers | 54c | 130.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…26b6backed Packers | 54c | 124.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…5102backed Packers | 54c | 120.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…a400backed Packers | 54c | 110.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…a6adbacked Packers | 54c | 99.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…c200backed Packers | 54c | 74.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…1b11backed Packers | 54c | 65.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…816bbacked Packers | 54c | 55.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Packers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Jaguars | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed Packers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Jaguars | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…21b8backed Jaguars | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Packers beat the Jaguars by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Cowboys by 4 or more points?49ers won
- Will the Bills beat the Seahawks by 3 or more points?Bills won
- Will the Dolphins beat the Cardinals by 5 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Falcons beat the Buccaneers by 3 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Lions beat the Titans by 12 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Ravens beat the Browns by 8 or more points?Browns won
- Will the Texans beat the Colts by 5 or more points?Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.