MLB · resolved market
Braxton Ashcraft: Strikeouts O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x333a23c9f0bfc00a443091e3ad977880ec80ab0eefe21994d47abed0135624a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 50c | 698.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Over | 50c | 217.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…ed90backed Over | 50c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…e829backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 47c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 47c | 23.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…673ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…103bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Braxton Ashcraft: Strikeouts O/U 6.5this page
- Ben Rice: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
- Esmerlyn Valdez: Home Runs O/U 0.5Over won
- Nick Gonzales: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
- Ryan Weathers: Strikeouts O/U 6.5Under won
- Trent Grisham: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.