Tennis · resolved market
Rio Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Thiago Monteiro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33542cc620f9f851724a68d4522d1badc1ba1d13f331304d934d37698f6b041a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Monteiroof Vallejo, Monteiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Monteiro | 76c | 1,787$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.6 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | -27.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Vallejo | 11c | 765.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Monteiro | 68c | 717.96$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Vallejo | 57c | 525.4$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…b716backed Vallejo | 59c | 504.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 64.1%59 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Vallejo | 39c | 479.5$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.21 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…6040backed Monteiro | 56c | 440.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Monteiro | 55c | 439.32$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Monteiro | 57c | 439.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…ee73backed Vallejo | 57c | 263.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Vallejo | 49c | 240.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Monteiro | 50c | 223.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Vallejo | 71c | 197.62$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Monteiro | 59c | 184.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Vallejo | 72c | 165.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Monteiro | 65c | 124.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Vallejo | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Vallejo | 49c | 87.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vallejo | 44c | 83.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Monteiro | 32c | 76.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Vallejo | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Vallejo | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Monteiro | 50c | 69.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…7758backed Monteiro | 31c | 63.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…132fbacked Vallejo | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Vallejo | 54c | 51.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Vallejo | 49c | 47.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Monteiro | 27c | 44.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Monteiro | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Vallejo | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -13.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Monteiro | 33c | 31.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Vallejo | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Vallejo | 68c | 26.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Vallejo | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Vallejo | 72c | 24.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 244 | 74.2%181 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Monteiro | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Monteiro | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Vallejo | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rio Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Thiago Monteirothis page
- Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Monteiro (+1.5)Monteiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.