Bundesliga · resolved market
Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d77d1168ce0c044b7d4063b914f83fe8fe8bec4de3cfd8ad553931b594f63a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 2,104$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 1,489$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 54c | 891.46$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 73c | 838.87$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 718.66$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 566.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 78c | 419.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 50c | 395$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 52c | 343.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 283.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 60c | 183.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 68c | 101.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 60c | 77.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 36c | 71.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 43c | 63.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 59c | 42.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 41c | 38.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 70c | 24.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5this page
- Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5Over won
- Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5Under won
- Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.