Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33fd2544c5909ed2a49fea2f3d1a06a60b0cee907a0db11fa32284fdfa43340d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Mejia, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mejia | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Musetti | 75c | 1,266$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.41 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Musetti | 55c | 217.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…c3cabacked Musetti | 79c | 158.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Mejia | 21c | 137.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Mejia | 30c | 122.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 678 | 38.3%260 W · 418 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Musetti | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mejia | 23c | 73.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…0b66backed Musetti | 77c | 63.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 222 | 62.6%139 W · 83 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6280…120dbacked Mejia | 50c | 54.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Mejia | 32c | 52.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Musetti | 64c | 50.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Mejia | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Musetti | 79c | 28.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Musetti | 72c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs Musettithis page
- National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti won
- Set Handicap: Mejia (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)Musetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.