Tennis · resolved market
National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b5094f26cf3a48cc4d2f872dd097b33de69d1774c2424cf89089effbcd53f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lorenzo Musettiof Nicolas Mejia, Lorenzo Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Nicolas Mejia | 10c | 17,200$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.69 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nicolas Mejia | 7c | 5,647$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 5,118$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.34 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 3,053$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.94 | 334 | 38.6%129 W · 205 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Nicolas Mejia | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nicolas Mejia | 11c | 2,554$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.91 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 2,538$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.21 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 2,522$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.67 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…5ca6backed Nicolas Mejia | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 1,710$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.34 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 1,700$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Nicolas Mejia | 6c | 1,513$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Nicolas Mejia | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 302 | 35.4%107 W · 195 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…c9d0backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 1,391$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…b38ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 22c | 1,381$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162d…8944backed Nicolas Mejia | 15c | 1,300$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 1,277$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 1,051$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Nicolas Mejia | 16c | 999$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 385 | 50.4%194 W · 191 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 26c | 852.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.3 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 750.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Nicolas Mejia | 18c | 486.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nicolas Mejia | 10c | 485.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…1048backed Nicolas Mejia | 19c | 473.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 107 | 29.9%32 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 435.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Nicolas Mejia | 32c | 419.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 389.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 376.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 10.2%9 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed Nicolas Mejia | 11c | 353.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Nicolas Mejia | 15c | 326.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…4aa9backed Nicolas Mejia | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…2482backed Nicolas Mejia | 19c | 250.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Nicolas Mejia | 21c | 228.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Nicolas Mejia | 18c | 223.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 271 | 39.1%106 W · 165 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Nicolas Mejia | 18c | 223.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 212.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…f40fbacked Nicolas Mejia | 6c | 206.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Nicolas Mejia | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Nicolas Mejia | 20c | 192.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 188$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 242 | 28.5%69 W · 173 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Nicolas Mejia | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Nicolas Mejia | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 36.5%74 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Nicolas Mejia | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Lorenzo Musetti | 65c | 144.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed Nicolas Mejia | 22c | 135.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -32.8wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Lorenzo Musetti | 74c | 132.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 74c | 114.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Nicolas Mejia | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 144 | 15.3%22 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Nicolas Mejia | 9c | 113.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Nicolas Mejia | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Nicolas Mejia | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Nicolas Mejia | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Nicolas Mejia | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Nicolas Mejia | 17c | 82.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…1914backed Nicolas Mejia | 19c | 81.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 73c | 76.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Nicolas Mejia | 15c | 75.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Nicolas Mejia | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Nicolas Mejia | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Lorenzo Musetti | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 478 | 57.9%277 W · 201 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 27.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 374 | 60.4%226 W · 148 L | +29.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Lorenzo Musetti | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musettithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs MusettiMusetti won
- Set Handicap: Mejia (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)Musetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.