Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34143b2534d8567ee5d505465c906c82672d08ce29889651f27a2525aad0735f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hijikataof Bublik, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Bublik | 58c | 2,208$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.6 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hijikata | 48c | 2,006$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.75 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Bublik | 50c | 1,480$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Hijikata | 41c | 1,202$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.9 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Bublik | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hijikata | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Hijikata | 43c | 489.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Hijikata | 44c | 458.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.65 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Bublik | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Bublik | 12c | 272.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Bublik | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hijikata | 43c | 112$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Bublik | 45c | 111.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Hijikata | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Hijikata | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Bublik | 67c | 59.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hijikata | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Bublik | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)this page
- Alexander Bublik vs. Rinky Hijikata: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Bublik vs Rinky HijikataRinky Hijikata won
- Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs HijikataBublik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.