Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342a0d47263731aeb6f118d4c134039c107587ccf6761264b1d3f65b3ff31198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Hurkacz, Altmaier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf44…71a4backed Hurkacz | 53c | 2,800$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.98 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 47c | 2,115$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.94 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 936.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Hurkacz | 54c | 733.31$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.74 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Altmaier | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 542$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.26 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Altmaier | 46c | 510.87$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.87 | 401 | 35.7%143 W · 258 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Altmaier | 47c | 384.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 1,158 | 41.4%479 W · 679 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Altmaier | 47c | 372$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Altmaier | 47c | 210.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Hurkacz | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Hurkacz | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 498 | 47.2%235 W · 263 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Altmaier | 41c | 175.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Altmaier | 47c | 163.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Altmaier | 48c | 158.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Hurkacz | 52c | 142.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Altmaier | 48c | 107.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 447 | 42.3%189 W · 258 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Hurkacz | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Altmaier | 48c | 101.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Altmaier | 48c | 100.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Altmaier | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Altmaier | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Altmaier | 46c | 98.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Hurkacz | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Hurkacz | 56c | 94.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Altmaier | 47c | 87.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Altmaier | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Altmaier | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Altmaier | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…fba6backed Hurkacz | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Altmaier | 46c | 74.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Altmaier | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Altmaier | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Hurkacz | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Altmaier | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Altmaier | 47c | 21.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Hurkacz | 52c | 19.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 289 | 58.1%168 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)this page
- Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel AltmaierDaniel Altmaier won
- Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs AltmaierHurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.