Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342b7b55c12fa8f706a1852bcbee4380a8c3768fa73de48f81b440e653583c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 37c | 328.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 322.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 42c | 296.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 19c | 262.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 262$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 190.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 45c | 162.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 114.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 38c | 113.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 21c | 83.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 59c | 77.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 70.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 64.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 62c | 63.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 18c | 55.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 73c | 55.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 54.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 49.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 44.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 44.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 31c | 43.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 34c | 43.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 39c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 56c | 35.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 32.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed No | 63c | 30.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 76c | 29.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 62c | 28.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 66c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 69c | 27.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 44c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 41c | 24.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 74c | 22.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 68c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.