Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce227105a4814d879999380e18b9aa740881e22d6416c66e273854b7ef1fc605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 75c | 496.39$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 47c | 412.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 42c | 287.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.72 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 209.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 136.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 48c | 128.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 108.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 66c | 100.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 77c | 98.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 36c | 93.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 68c | 85.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 84.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 40c | 81.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 71.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 67c | 70.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 25c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…2832backed Yes | 74c | 63.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 55.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 79c | 54.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…cc7dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 40c | 51.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…bc9fbacked Yes | 44c | 49.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 48.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 51c | 47.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 36c | 42.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 49c | 42.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 57c | 38.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 34.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 58c | 32.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 36c | 31.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 70c | 31.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 30.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 48c | 29.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 65c | 28.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 67c | 27.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 64c | 26.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 71c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 15.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.