Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342df1646b36bd95155e05830c40da5639f9b3a77a1c49f9f662e7af3f22181a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof Execration, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Execration | 1c | 1,053$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50d…cf54backed PlayTime | 46c | 699.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed PlayTime | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed PlayTime | 48c | 415.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Execration | 46c | 407.19$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed PlayTime | 40c | 393.55$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.13 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked PlayTime | 42c | 356.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Execration | 71c | 291.9$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Execration | 54c | 207.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Execration | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…76a7backed Execration | 60c | 135.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…fababacked Execration | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…8536backed PlayTime | 35c | 129.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…8d4bbacked Execration | 54c | 126$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed PlayTime | 33c | 123.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Execration | 54c | 111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Execration | 54c | 105.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…409bbacked PlayTime | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Execration | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Execration | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Execration | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed PlayTime | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Execration | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Execration | 68c | 96.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Execration | 53c | 78.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Execration | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed PlayTime | 54c | 72.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Execration | 30c | 63.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked PlayTime | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbe…eb97backed Execration | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed PlayTime | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed Execration | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed PlayTime | 49c | 42.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed PlayTime | 50c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Execration | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Execration | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Execration | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…c2eebacked Execration | 60c | 22.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…591cbacked Execration | 67c | 22.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…6944backed Execration | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Execration | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.