Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342fd79e47b5f1e0627d379dac87f4ce2a4dfb8b00fcb204523b7fc6fbee4c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astini+5of Astini+5, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f15…6a63backed Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 1,235$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade4…5223backed Astini+5 | 77c | 1,206$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 1,190$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.18 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nemiga Gaming | 2c | 940$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 829.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Astini+5 | 78c | 456.06$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Astini+5 | 78c | 367.95$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 315$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 286.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Astini+5 | 79c | 196.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 188.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Nemiga Gaming | 14c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Astini+5 | 79c | 128.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Astini+5 | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…7858backed Nemiga Gaming | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 13c | 83.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 74.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…838bbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…22d0backed Astini+5 | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Astini+5 | 76c | 50.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 49.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 43.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 303 | 51.2%155 W · 148 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Astini+5 | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Astini+5 | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a663backed Astini+5 | 80c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2f…4b47backed Astini+5 | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Astini+5 | 76c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAstini+5 won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerAstini+5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.