Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $185 August 25–31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c8e42d9949ab3003ca2c92e3b38dfb2b16992b25b68a06181ddc1b757594f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 10c | 24,023$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.89 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3d…3fddbacked Yes | 20c | 16,170$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 76c | 7,964$6,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.67 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 23c | 1,389$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.66 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 80c | 725$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed No | 30c | 550$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.95 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 434.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 16c | 246.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 15c | 202$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 79c | 45.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…a515backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $185 August 25–31?this page
- Will Solana dip to $170 August 25–31?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 August 25–31?No won
- Will Solana reach $215 August 25–31?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $220 August 25–31?No won
- Will Solana reach $225 August 25–31?No won
- Will Solana reach $230 August 25–31?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 August 25–31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.