Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belarus vs. Greece end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359e2f76b3b19e441a165fdae67534eae26cd3d1743881b98262c9c0b9edb984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3166…f649backed Yes | 5c | 17,088$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,233.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 2c | 6,082$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 1,078$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.23 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 26c | 1,005$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.18 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…64b4backed Yes | 69c | 716.94$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 669.97$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.69 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 66c | 620.48$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.1 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Yes | 29c | 515.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.94 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 10c | 500.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 439.71$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.71 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked Yes | 29c | 345.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 29c | 343.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 13c | 342$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…e935backed Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 65c | 205$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 197.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…60a3backed Yes | 70c | 148.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 49c | 114.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed No | 68c | 99.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 53c | 84.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…6748backed Yes | 68c | 60.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…397bbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked Yes | 58c | 59.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed No | 51c | 55.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked No | 51c | 32.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…e358backed Yes | 38c | 28.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…3d7abacked No | 55c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f1…2c1cbacked Yes | 70c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belarus vs. Greece end in a draw?this page
- Will Belarus win on 2025-11-18?No won
- Will Greece win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.