Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belarus win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7958fdd1c7d532d702b0768775979b99f448dc8f67bca40900412a9e45d83f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 6,260$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.36 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,633$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 14c | 2,130$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,963$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,091$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 828$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Yes | 13c | 757.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 10c | 496$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…dcb7backed Yes | 16c | 480.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 10c | 403.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…842cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 11c | 265.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 11c | 243.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…b807backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 11c | 199.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…ed1abacked Yes | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 13c | 158.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 9c | 149.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4570…402abacked Yes | 9c | 142.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 64.8%114 W · 62 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes | 10c | 130.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 10c | 111.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 10c | 111.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belarus win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Belarus vs. Greece end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Greece win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.