Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a9ec1b234ae3e5d41c4964936528e30af746fa56b60a811b69b09b2ef8554f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked Yes | 19c | 2,700$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 362.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 215.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 173.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 28c | 153.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 137.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 122.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 39c | 119.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 102.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 44c | 90.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…ffb9backed Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…1fe0backed Yes | 23c | 88.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 84.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 37c | 76.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 39c | 76.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 32c | 71.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 39c | 64.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…6acebacked Yes | 44c | 59.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 37c | 53.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 41.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 66c | 36.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…ac93backed No | 79c | 33.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…652abacked No | 77c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 79c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df2…4da4backed No | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.