Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b4a4b5802596a9acac232484a917f82d50e5708307506be7a96ad8c97e5cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 44c | 407.84$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.39 | 917 | 40.2%369 W · 548 L | +112.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…0f40backed No | 55c | 304.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 284.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 250.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 247.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 234.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed No | 75c | 169.85$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 56c | 158.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 135.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 25c | 125.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 45c | 104.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 78c | 99.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 98.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 34c | 84.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 71.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 69.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…2c75backed Yes | 28c | 68.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 60c | 67.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 66.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed No | 41c | 63.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 25c | 63.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 61.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 34c | 58.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 37c | 54.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed Yes | 69c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 43c | 50.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 49.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 989 | 38%376 W · 613 L | +80.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 40c | 44.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 32c | 44.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 41c | 43.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…84c3backed No | 46c | 43.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 67c | 37.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 66c | 36.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…0ac2backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 78c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…435cbacked Yes | 38c | 34.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 29.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd830…a1bcbacked No | 47c | 28.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 26.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 25.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 46c | 22.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 20.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 64c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 15.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.