College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ce6eae5d0c90df236c7050a10123df4c101d0a19cef946faf5c5f49d4b90e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Old Dominion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed James Madison | 54c | 9,059$4,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124.37 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Old Dominion | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed James Madison | 55c | 7,982$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,591.81 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Old Dominion | 48c | 7,354$3,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,529.84 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed James Madison | 49c | 5,245$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.05 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion | 46c | 4,310$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.1 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Old Dominion | 51c | 2,923$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed James Madison | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Old Dominion | 47c | 1,190$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.41 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Old Dominion | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Old Dominion | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Old Dominion | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed James Madison | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Old Dominion | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed James Madison | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked James Madison | 51c | 283.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Old Dominion | 51c | 225$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Old Dominion | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed James Madison | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Old Dominion | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Old Dominion | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Old Dominion | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-2.5)this page
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Old Dominion vs. James MadisonJames Madison won
- Spread: James Madison (-1.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.