College Football · resolved market
Old Dominion vs. James Madison
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa967686486b0ab1f91ca56a92fbd957f602b4aea77f8df21fbdd24b5177cb0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof Old Dominion, James Madison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Old Dominion | 42c | 46,481$19,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,497.94 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed James Madison | 59c | 24,414$14,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,009.81 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked James Madison | 57c | 22,933$13,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,861.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Old Dominion | 49c | 10,117$4,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,960.68 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked James Madison | 59c | 7,834$4,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.98 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked James Madison | 50c | 6,427$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,245.47 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Old Dominion | 51c | 6,128$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.84 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed James Madison | 52c | 4,376$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion | 41c | 4,079$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.19 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Old Dominion | 42c | 3,860$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.18 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Old Dominion | 42c | 3,500$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.99 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Old Dominion | 41c | 2,462$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.42 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed James Madison | 51c | 1,841$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Old Dominion | 50c | 1,417$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.03 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked James Madison | 58c | 1,400$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.61 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked James Madison | 55c | 1,314$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.35 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked James Madison | 47c | 1,282$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.5 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Old Dominion | 42c | 1,196$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.83 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Old Dominion | 47c | 1,138$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.54 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Old Dominion | 48c | 1,118$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked James Madison | 56c | 1,037$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed James Madison | 55c | 991$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Old Dominion | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked James Madison | 54c | 685.65$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Old Dominion | 46c | 549$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.54 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed James Madison | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Old Dominion | 40c | 525$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Old Dominion | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Old Dominion | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed James Madison | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Old Dominion | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Old Dominion | 43c | 224.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Old Dominion | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Old Dominion | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Old Dominion | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Old Dominion | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed James Madison | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked James Madison | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Old Dominion | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed James Madison | 55c | 184$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked James Madison | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Old Dominion | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Old Dominion | 44c | 97.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Old Dominion | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Old Dominion | 42c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed James Madison | 55c | 76.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Old Dominion | 49c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…cabfbacked Old Dominion | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Old Dominion | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Old Dominion | 62c | 56.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Old Dominion | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Old Dominion | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Old Dominion | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Old Dominion | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Old Dominion | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…a04bbacked James Madison | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…68febacked Old Dominion | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdceb…cd72backed James Madison | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed James Madison | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Old Dominion | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Old Dominion | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Old Dominion | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed James Madison | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked James Madison | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Old Dominion vs. James Madisonthis page
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-1.5)James Madison won
- Spread: James Madison (-2.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.