MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3607a0ea30c8c74ee2bc1121ce5ca7a90df8ab07631068adcaa9f21563c1972f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 926$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.96 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 54c | 926$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.96 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 228.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…2aa2backed Over | 52c | 202.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 198.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 152.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 88.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01c…b61cbacked Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Nationals vs. MetsMets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.