MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09efbe4bf70e5e041a91516537f95ab5def7d8e0e22d0d547f81df83a46f34e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 613.29$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed New York Mets | 52c | 531.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 409.41$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked New York Mets | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…2aa2backed New York Mets | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed New York Mets | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 122.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed New York Mets | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 122.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked New York Mets | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1352backed New York Mets | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Mets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…f2bbbacked New York Mets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked New York Mets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked New York Mets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed New York Mets | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed New York Mets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Nationals vs. MetsMets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.