Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3623bf6835693b7d1c2ae122d8f54e8645b78c6f1c80e66b377b0fe2c20665a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Rune Eaters, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 184.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 162.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Rune Eaters | 37c | 136.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 112.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…2230backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 111.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Lynx | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…9a6ebacked Team Lynx | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked Rune Eaters | 45c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Team Lynx | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 54c | 64.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Team Lynx | 62c | 63.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Team Lynx | 46c | 54.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…7073backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 47.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…3e5dbacked Team Lynx | 47c | 43.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Lynx | 47c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Lynx | 69c | 38.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Lynx | 45c | 33.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Rune Eaters | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e7…174fbacked Rune Eaters | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…9b65backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 13.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.