Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3642a11c43a9860be03fcd810d75c0e74b3a49fb6b98cdb9ef6ba4b77ad3b052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 17c | 1,587$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.02 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 6c | 989.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 622.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 74c | 436.3$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 74c | 419.47$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 311.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 18c | 278.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 223.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 56c | 212.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 206.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 66c | 198.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 193.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 62c | 145.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 135.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 129.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 54c | 112.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 56c | 111.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 62c | 106.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…6435backed Yes | 46c | 102.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e0a2backed Yes | 32c | 95.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 91.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 57c | 85.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 58c | 76.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 54c | 74.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 73.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 45c | 69.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 68.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked No | 63c | 66.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 34c | 65.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 77c | 64.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 69c | 50.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 49.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 30c | 46.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 46.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…ccf7backed No | 63c | 45.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 44.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…e4bcbacked Yes | 38c | 44.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 57c | 40.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 66c | 40.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 37.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 67c | 31.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 31.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 55c | 27.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…2ad6backed Yes | 39c | 25.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…5841backed Yes | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 20.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed No | 58c | 18.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed Yes | 77c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.