Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b942061cbf87f1ba86a731cad63d05ea84ab1e92047e88e0020d352a0102cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,928 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 435.97$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 379.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 342.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 38c | 290.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 235.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 212.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 191.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 10c | 173.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 173.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 11c | 156.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 68c | 151.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 29c | 142.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 118.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 73c | 118.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 111.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 111.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 69c | 101.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 35c | 95.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 90.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 67c | 89.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 82.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 36c | 70.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 68.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 40c | 65.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 64.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 61c | 60.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 58.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 62c | 58.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed No | 73c | 57.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 38c | 55.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e0a2backed Yes | 38c | 52.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 39c | 51.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 78c | 50.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 48.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 47.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 46.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 42.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 32c | 42.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 73c | 41.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 41.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 66c | 35.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 35.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…51abbacked No | 71c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…9ec3backed Yes | 36c | 31.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…5fedbacked No | 70c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 71c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…9cafbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.