CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Prison Breakers (BO3) - CCT South America Series #7 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3658fb3943888c51739986ed54b0c12560010354d7055f90681b4ee235c939a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Prison Breakersof Bad Luck, Prison Breakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Prison Breakers | 58c | 2,905$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.46 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3efe…2ed8backed Bad Luck | 46c | 1,243$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Bad Luck | 40c | 1,190$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.32 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bad Luck | 3c | 966.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bad Luck | 44c | 865.71$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.87 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Bad Luck | 37c | 805.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Prison Breakers | 40c | 733.16$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.42 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Prison Breakers | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bad Luck | 55c | 349$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Prison Breakers | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Bad Luck | 40c | 272.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…9291backed Bad Luck | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Bad Luck | 43c | 184.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…718dbacked Prison Breakers | 66c | 173.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Prison Breakers | 64c | 159.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Bad Luck | 49c | 155.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Bad Luck | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Bad Luck | 46c | 109.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed Prison Breakers | 67c | 106.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Prison Breakers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…1eccbacked Bad Luck | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Bad Luck | 49c | 62.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 398 | 51.3%204 W · 194 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Bad Luck | 46c | 50.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…6fd0backed Prison Breakers | 60c | 49.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…571ebacked Bad Luck | 45c | 41.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…4198backed Prison Breakers | 62c | 39.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd678…490dbacked Prison Breakers | 68c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…6631backed Prison Breakers | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Prison Breakers | 61c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…9657backed Prison Breakers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…a742backed Bad Luck | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Prison Breakers (BO3) - CCT South America Series #7 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Prison Breakers - Map 1 WinnerBad Luck won
- Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Prison Breakers - Map 2 WinnerPrison Breakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.