Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x365ca7f9193d92d59abbc760acd97902fb7808156b7895f962c239809b8b8a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,026$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…d6b3backed No | 1c | 2,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 4c | 1,242$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…e8f3backed No | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 2c | 570.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 4c | 303.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 252.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 6c | 208.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.17 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 5c | 200.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 29c | 177.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 17c | 122.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 32c | 101.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 22c | 90.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 88.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 80.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 77.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 18c | 72.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 54.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed No | 70c | 52.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 51.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 47.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 34c | 44.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…5988backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 38.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 68c | 38.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 68c | 38.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…7cb4backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 60c | 31.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 40c | 29.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 57c | 28.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 22.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe67…53f2backed Yes | 72c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 14.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.