Token Launches · resolved market
Will Kanye launch a coin before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366ad6e34c1a6e6dde65cc1dfebc53b734d4c9bd9c2e42e16ce7e243cd23aa67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,955$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.78 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…5eb1backed Yes | 15c | 5,010$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 4,257$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9be…d811backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…7dcebacked Yes | 22c | 799.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 15c | 678.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 429.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 78c | 403.76$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 4c | 378.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 369.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 78c | 294.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 6c | 181.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 79c | 146.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…bb2abacked Yes | 17c | 120.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 91.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…f885backed No | 76c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.