Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3678178ae0f35de7f3add6a7d13138951c4646da8232fbf720af45c1effa7be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,272$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 263 | 19.8%52 W · 211 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…ffebbacked No | 67c | 1,976$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.02 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 33c | 1,546$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.16 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 1,368$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,314$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 709.97$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 28c | 510.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 69c | 418$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 31c | 358.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 33c | 310$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 285$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 186.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 33c | 172.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 154.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 115.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 29c | 110.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 30c | 67.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 202 | 59.9%121 W · 81 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +22.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 76c | 54.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 292 | 50%146 W · 146 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 68c | 43.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed No | 68c | 42.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 68c | 39.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 50c | 20.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 73c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
- Will Watford FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.