Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3694d1ee61cbb58f6adf20bb8c0d62b41bf1743c2d23af11634b6a1c3e1f456d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kovacevicof Kovacevic, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf3…e802backed Carabelli | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 477 | 28.1%134 W · 343 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kovacevic | 53c | 528.31$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Kovacevic | 40c | 346.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.82 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Carabelli | 60c | 332.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Kovacevic | 72c | 301.87$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c5…720fbacked Carabelli | 65c | 292.31$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Kovacevic | 42c | 278$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…78aebacked Carabelli | 25c | 236$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 159 | 28.9%46 W · 113 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kovacevic | 42c | 228.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Carabelli | 5c | 225.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Carabelli | 66c | 196.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kovacevic | 34c | 196.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carabelli | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Kovacevic | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kovacevic | 72c | 91.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kovacevic | 42c | 43.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Carabellithis page
- Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliAleksandar Kovacevic won
- Kovacevic vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Carabelli (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5)Kovacevic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.