Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers to score first vs. Seattle Sounders FC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a5dc5830da2244b5d8acebe8d2b0f190a531dae97d95ba0a4a96b0a306ec10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba9…f812backed Yes | 34c | 1,479$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 622.27$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.89 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 65c | 506.12$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.98 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked Yes | 32c | 197.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 67c | 145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 145$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 144.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 65c | 39.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 31.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 25.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 67c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…777fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.